Brian Wilson: Why Quebec finally saw the light

The margin against Quebec independence - narrow in the 1995 referendum is now wide. Picture: André Pichette/AFP

The Canadian province’s decision not to hold another referendum has profound lessons for Scotland, says Brian Wilson

In 1995, the people of Quebec voted by less than one per cent to avoid secession from Canada. Last week, they voted overwhelmingly not to go through the whole rigmarole again by inflicting a crushing defeat on the separatist party which was proposing another referendum.

The analogy with our own situation is highly relevant. For supporters of independence, their perennial, unspoken motto is that they only have to win once. There is no such thing as “giving it a shot”, on the basis of sale and return.

There would be no opportunity to think again, as the Quebecois have clearly done. If that one per cent had tipped the other way, the huge majority against independence which now exists would be wasting their time saying so. They would just have been left to count the cost or ship out.

That is the winner-take-all nature of an independence referendum, so long as the winners are the advocates of secession. If they lose, they will undoubtedly try again. But by then, the offer will be less novel and emotive than first time round.

Eighteen years is a sufficient time to test the claims that everything good would continue as before. Much the same assertions were made there as here – an independent Quebec would carry on using the Canadian dollar, there would be a free trade agreement with Canada, and so on, none of them ever assented to by Ottawa any more than by Westminster.

Like Scotland in the UK, Quebec has a more elderly population and a higher dependency on welfare benefits. The reality has had plenty time to soak in that an independent Quebec would start off with massive debt while immediately losing the benefit of public expenditure cross-subsidy within Canada.